Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
