Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
